WASHINGTON, Dec. 12, 2025 — Retail sales saw strong year-over-year growth in November, with the first half of the holiday shopping season putting results on track to meet the National Retail Federation’s spending forecast, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by NRF.
“Retail sales showed healthy year-over-year gains in November while month-over-month data was largely flat,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Shoppers looking for online deals may have held back a bit until Cyber Monday, which landed in December due to a late Thanksgiving, likely shifting some spending. Consumers are focusing on value and spending carefully during the holiday period, and retailers are offering products at competitive prices to fit every budget. We remain confident in our 2025 holiday forecast as well as our retail sales projections for the full year.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 0.12% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.53% unadjusted year over year in November, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.6% month over month and 5% year over year in October.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations) was down a slight 0.04% month over month in November but up 4.66% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.6% month over month and 4.89% year over year in October.
Total sales were up 5.06% year over year for the first 11 months of the year and core sales were up 5.22%.
The November results come as NRF is forecasting that 2025 holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared with 2024 to just over $1 trillion. NRF has forecast that retail sales for the entire year will increase between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024 to as much as $5.48 trillion.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
November sales were up in all but one category on a yearly basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores and clothing stores but were down in six out of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
- Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were down 0.37% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 14.81% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.28% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.96% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.04% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 8.16% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.74% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.89% year over year unadjusted.
- General merchandise stores were down 0.73% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 3.1% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.19% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 1.31% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 2.94% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 1.01% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 0.53% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 1.74% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 9.38% year over year unadjusted.
To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.
About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies nrf.com
About CNBC
CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business content consumed by more than half a billion people per month across all platforms. The network’s 15 live hours a day of news programming in North America (weekdays from 5:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC’s global headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and includes reports from CNBC News bureaus worldwide. CNBC at night features a mix of reality programming, CNBC’s highly successful series produced exclusively for CNBC and a number of distinctive in-house documentaries.
CNBC also offers content through its vast portfolio of digital products such as: CNBC.com, which provides financial market news and information to CNBC’s investor audience; CNBC Make It, a digital destination focused on making you smarter about how you earn, save and spend your money; CNBC PRO, a premium service that provides in-depth access to Wall Street; a suite of CNBC mobile apps for iOS and Android devices; Amazon Alexa, Google Assistant and Apple Siri voice interfaces; and streaming services including Apple TV, Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV and Samsung Smart TVs. To learn more, visit cnbc.com/digital-products. Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBCUniversal Media Village Web site at nbcumv.com/programming/cnbc. For more information about NBCUniversal, please visit NBCUniversal.com.
About Affinity Solutions
Affinity Solutions (Affinity) is the leading consumer purchase insights company. We provide a complete view of U.S. and U.K. consumer spending, across and between brands, via exclusive access to fully permissioned data from over 150 million debit and credit cards. This data is transformed into privacy-compliant, actionable intelligence for marketers, consultancies, and financial services companies to drive strategic growth and lasting customer relationships. Visit us at affinitysolutions.com to discover how we’re shaping the future of consumer purchase insights.
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MEDIA CONTACTS
NRF: J. Craig Shearman | press@nrf.com
CNBC: Melissa Castro | melissa.castro@nbcuni.com
Affinity Solutions: Kathleen Siddell | ksiddell@affinitysolutions.com
