CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Shows March Sales Grew Only Moderately Amid Tariff Concerns 

WASHINGTON, April 14, 2025 – Retail sales grew in March after two straight months of declines, but gains remained moderate as consumers continued to be concerned by rising tariffs, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.

“Retail sales increased in March but only moderately, and the spending came before the president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The pullback we’ve seen the past few months comes despite strong economic fundamentals. A major factor appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. March’s increase is partly the result of stocking up to get ahead of tariffs. With the economic outlook unclear and the situation fluid, consumer sentiment is weakening, and many consumers are shifting disposable income into savings.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.75% unadjusted year over year in March, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.22% month over month and an increase of 3.38% year over year in February.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was up 0.4% month over month in March and up 5.07% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.22% month over month and an increase of 4.11% year over year in February.

Total sales were up 4.52% year over year for the first three months of the year and core sales were up 4.96%.

The March results reflect consumer spending that came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico in February but before he announced a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S trading partners on April 2 along with sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries. The reciprocal tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, but additional tariffs on China have resulted in back-and-forth escalation between China and the U.S. Even before that, however, a survey conducted for NRF by Prosper Insights & Analytics found 46% of consumers said they were stocking up on household appliances, clothing and other items in early March because they were worried they would become more expensive because of tariffs.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

March sales were up across the board on a yearly basis, led by digital products, general merchandise stores, and sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores. Sales were up in four out of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include: 

• Digital products were up 0.79% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 27.62% year over year unadjusted. 

• General merchandise stores were up 0.48% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.62% year over year unadjusted. 

• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were unchanged month over month seasonally adjusted but up 6.63% year over year unadjusted. 

• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.29% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.94% year over year unadjusted. 

• Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.39% year over year unadjusted. 

• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.65% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.05% year over year unadjusted. 

• Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.76% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 2.37% year over year unadjusted. 

• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.81% year over year unadjusted. 

• Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 0.78% year over year unadjusted. 

To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.

About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com 

About CNBC
CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business content consumed by more than half a billion people per month across all platforms. The network’s 15 live hours a day of news programming in North America (weekdays from 5:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC’s global headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and includes reports from CNBC News bureaus worldwide. CNBC at night features a mix of reality programming, CNBC’s highly successful series produced exclusively for CNBC and a number of distinctive in-house documentaries.

CNBC also offers content through its vast portfolio of digital products such as: CNBC.com, which provides financial market news and information to CNBC’s investor audience; CNBC Make It, a digital destination focused on making you smarter about how you earn, save and spend your money; CNBC PRO, a premium service that provides in-depth access to Wall Street; a suite of CNBC mobile apps for iOS and Android devices; Amazon Alexa, Google Assistant and Apple Siri voice interfaces; and streaming services including Apple TV, Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV and Samsung Smart TVs. To learn more, visit cnbc.com/digital-products. Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBCUniversal Media Village Web site at nbcumv.com/programming/cnbc. For more information about NBCUniversal, please visit NBCUniversal.com.

About Affinity Solutions
Affinity Solutions (Affinity) is the leading consumer purchase insights company. We provide a complete view of U.S. and U.K. consumer spending, across and between brands, via exclusive access to fully permissioned data from over 140 million debit and credit cards. This data is transformed into privacy-compliant, actionable intelligence for marketers, consultancies, and financial services companies to drive strategic growth and lasting customer relationships. Visit us at www.affinitysolutions.com to discover how we’re shaping the future of consumer purchase insights.

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MEDIA CONTACTS

NRF: J. Craig Shearman | press@nrf.com

CNBC: Melissa Castro | melissa.castro@nbcuni.com

Affinity Solutions: Kathleen Siddell | ksiddell@affinitysolutions.com