WASHINGTON, Nov. 10, 2025 — Retail sales bounced back in October, showing both monthly and year-over-year gains heading into the holiday shopping season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.
“Retail sales grew in October as consumers geared up for the holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Recent economic data has been mixed, yet consumer spending remains solid — supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, historically low unemployment, and wealth effects from strong stock market valuations. These factors point to continued momentum heading into the holidays as consumers focus on family, friends and finding value to make their budgets go further.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 5% unadjusted year over year in October, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.66% month over month and an increase of 5.42% year over year in September.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was also up 0.6% month over month in September and up 4.89% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.49% month over month and an increase of 5.72% year over year in September.
Total sales were up 5.11% year over year for the first 10 months of the year and core sales were up 5.28%.
The October results come as NRF is forecasting that 2025 holiday sales will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared with 2024 to just over $1 trillion.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
October sales were up in all but two of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by digital products, clothing store and sporting goods stores, and were also up in all but two categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
- Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 2.02% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 22.39% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were up 1.42% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.89% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.09% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.19% year over year unadjusted.
- General merchandise stores were up 0.58% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.99% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were up 0.13% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.58% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.59% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.08% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were up 0.58% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.9% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.08% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 1.7% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 8.52% year over year unadjusted.
To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.
About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies nrf.com
About CNBC
CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business content consumed by more than half a billion people per month across all platforms. The network’s 15 live hours a day of news programming in North America (weekdays from 5:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC’s global headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and includes reports from CNBC News bureaus worldwide. CNBC at night features a mix of reality programming, CNBC’s highly successful series produced exclusively for CNBC and a number of distinctive in-house documentaries.
CNBC also offers content through its vast portfolio of digital products such as: CNBC.com, which provides financial market news and information to CNBC’s investor audience; CNBC Make It, a digital destination focused on making you smarter about how you earn, save and spend your money; CNBC PRO, a premium service that provides in-depth access to Wall Street; a suite of CNBC mobile apps for iOS and Android devices; Amazon Alexa, Google Assistant and Apple Siri voice interfaces; and streaming services including Apple TV, Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV and Samsung Smart TVs. To learn more, visit cnbc.com/digital-products. Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBCUniversal Media Village Web site at nbcumv.com/programming/cnbc. For more information about NBCUniversal, please visit NBCUniversal.com.
About Affinity Solutions
Affinity Solutions (Affinity) is the leading consumer purchase insights company. We provide a complete view of U.S. and U.K. consumer spending, across and between brands, via exclusive access to fully permissioned data from over 150 million debit and credit cards. This data is transformed into privacy-compliant, actionable intelligence for marketers, consultancies, and financial services companies to drive strategic growth and lasting customer relationships. Visit us at affinitysolutions.com to discover how we’re shaping the future of consumer purchase insights.
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MEDIA CONTACTS
NRF: J. Craig Shearman | press@nrf.com
CNBC: Melissa Castro | melissa.castro@nbcuni.com
Affinity Solutions: Kathleen Siddell | ksiddell@affinitysolutions.com
