Retail spending declined on a monthly basis in February amid concern over tariffs, but continued to grow YoY as the economy remained strong.
WASHINGTON, March 10, 2025 – Retail spending declined on a monthly basis in February amid concern over tariffs, but continued to grow year over year as the economy remained strong, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.
“Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs and the probability of paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The value-conscious consumer is spending less and saving more while making careful choices about purchases. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals including low unemployment and wage increases that are outpacing inflation.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 3.38% unadjusted year over year in February, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 1.07% month over month and an increase of 5.44% year over year in January.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was also down 0.22% month over month in February but up 4.11% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 1.27% month over month and an increase of 5.72% year over year in January.
Total sales were up 4.41% year over year for the first two months of the year and core sales were up 4.91%. That compares with 3.6% growth for the full year in 2024.
The February monthly downturn came after President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico at the beginning of February. The Canada-Mexico tariffs were immediately delayed by a month, then delayed again for most goods until April 2 last week, but the tariffs on China were doubled to 20%. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 64.7 in February from 71.7 in January, marking the second monthly decline after five months of small gains.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
February sales were up in six out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, health and personal care stores, and general merchandise stores. Sales were down in all but two categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
- Online and other non-store sales were up 0.46% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 36.51% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 8.33% year over year unadjusted.
- General merchandise stores were down 0.42% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 6.2% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were down 0.07% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 4.08% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.78% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 3.75% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.93% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.57% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.43% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 0.06% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 1.02% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 3.34% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 3.67% year over year unadjusted.
To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.
About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com
About CNBC
CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business content consumed by more than half a billion people per month across all platforms. The network’s 15 live hours a day of news programming in North America (weekdays from 5:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC’s global headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and includes reports from CNBC News bureaus worldwide. CNBC at night features a mix of reality programming, CNBC’s highly successful series produced exclusively for CNBC and a number of distinctive in-house documentaries.
CNBC also offers content through its vast portfolio of digital products such as: CNBC.com, which provides financial market news and information to CNBC’s investor audience; CNBC Make It, a digital destination focused on making you smarter about how you earn, save and spend your money; CNBC PRO, a premium service that provides in-depth access to Wall Street; a suite of CNBC mobile apps for iOS and Android devices; Amazon Alexa, Google Assistant and Apple Siri voice interfaces; and streaming services including Apple TV, Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV and Samsung Smart TVs. To learn more, visit cnbc.com/digital-products. Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBCUniversal Media Village Web site at nbcumv.com/programming/cnbc. For more information about NBCUniversal, please visit NBCUniversal.com.
About Affinity Solutions
Affinity Solutions (Affinity) is the leading consumer purchase insights company. We provide a complete view of U.S. and U.K. consumer spending, across and between brands, via exclusive access to fully permissioned data from over 140 million debit and credit cards. This data is transformed into privacy-compliant, actionable intelligence for marketers, consultancies, and financial services companies to drive strategic growth and lasting customer relationships. Visit us at www.affinitysolutions.com to discover how we’re shaping the future of consumer purchase insights.
###
MEDIA CONTACTS
NRF: J. Craig Shearman | press@nrf.com
CNBC: Melissa Castro | melissa.castro@nbcuni.com
Affinity Solutions: Kathleen Siddell | ksiddell@affinitysolutions.com
